Dean is the one who makes sensible political forecasts; I tend to just blurt out my gut feelings. So here's my gut feeling: Obama scrapes through to re-election.
I'll be extremely happy if I turn out to be wrong, and all my favourite blogs are assuring me that I am. I enjoy reading Ace of Spades, and hearing all the raucous pooh-poohing of the polls which show this to be a very close race. I want to believe them, but I remember how certain everyone was in the summer when the traitorous Supreme Court left Obamacare standing as the law of the land. Basically, I don't want to be made a fool of again.
Everyone talks about the media's and Left's "narrative". Well, I suppose I have a narrative too, and it's that America has lost the Mandate of Heaven. And when you lose that, you don't get it back by punching a button or throwing a switch. I think the disease that produced the symptom in the White House has not gone away one bit. This is the same country, the same people who defiantly gave God the finger in 2008 by electing an enemy to Christ to rule them.
The people who saw Obama for what he was in 2008 are still there today - they will do the same thing, and vote against him. Of the people who voted for Obama in 2008 and will NOT vote for him this year, a very small number have joined the people in the first group; they've awakened from their dream and have seen reality.
But the majority of those former Obama voters are not honestly repentant: they're surly and resentful because the con they took part in did not pay off. They're now in search of the next great conman who'll fill their pockets and bellies.
America is not like the people of Nineveh, who recognized their sin and repented in ashes, fasting, sackcloth, and prayer. I see no sign that they have any feeling at all that they themselves are at fault, merely that the mechanical contraption that is supposed to carry them along and satisfy all their whims got a bit of grit in the gears and failed to meet their expectations.
UPDATE 11/19/12: Well there...you see what I mean.